The current French Presidential Election reminds me that at
this time 5 years ago I was holidaying in Paris and watching from close
quarters the contest between the then rival candidates - Nicolas Sarkozy and Segolene Royal.
On May Day I was wandering through Place de la Bastille and chanced upon a pro Segolene rally. There were several hundred enthusiastic supporters – a majority of them women – and much singing and dancing to the beating rhythm of a band of drummers. Their enthusiasm was infectious. I found myself joining in the chant – 'Segolene...Presidente!’.
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| Segolene Royal Rally - Place de la Bastille May Day 2007 |
Unfortunately the enthusiasm in Paris wasn’t enough to get Segolene over the line and Sarkozy had a
comfortable win in the second round ballot.
By this time I had moved on from Paris and was staying in a B & B at
Pauillac in the Bordeaux Region. I would like to have engaged our hosts in a
discussion on the relative merits of the two contenders, but did not want to
cause offence if our respective views were at odds.
Sarkozy’s honeymoon with the French people was short-lived
and opinion polls suggest he is now the least popular president since the
foundation of the Fifth Republic in 1958.
It was highly likely that, until his fall from grace last
year, Dominique Strauss-Kahn would be the next Socialist Party candidate for
President. While the French seem to have a high tolerance of the infidelities
of their public figures, this seems only to the extent that they are carried
out discreetly. Unlike former President François Mitterand, Strauss- Kahn spectacularly failed this test.
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| Francois Hollande |
All of this brings us to the current situation. Segolene Royal’s
ex-husband, Francois Hollande, is now poised to defeat Sarkozy in the run-off
ballot on Sunday. If he is successful it will reverse the trend across Europe
that has seen left-of-centre governments fall over recent times – most notably Britain,
Spain and Greece.
A win by Hollande will dramatically change the political
dynamic across Europe. No more of the cosy relationship between Sarkozy and
Angela Merkel and their continuing advocacy of austerity in response to the
European economic crisis.
Hollande is
committed to balancing the French budget but, unlike his opponent, he is
proposing to increase taxes for the rich and the banks and big business, cut taxes on profits for small business, and cancel tax breaks introduced under Sarkozy.
With unemployment running at 10 per cent (and youth unemployment at 20 per cent), Hollande is also promising 60,000 new jobs in schools and 150,000 state-aided jobs for youth, as well as assistance for start up businesses.
Such stimulatory measures run counter to the prevailing response across Europe to the economic crisis, but they will be welcomed by those who are suffering the most hardship as a result of the economic conditions. If Hollande is successful then other European parties will likely take their lead from France. So too Ed Miliband in his campaign to ensure David Cameron is a one-term Tory Prime Minister
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