Whither the Labor Government?

As a Labor Party member I am filled with despair at what’s happening to my party. For any fair-minded observer of Australian politics it is an unedifying spectacle that has played out over recent days. 

In little over 24 hours Labor parliamentarians will cast their votes in a ballot that will likely determine the fate of the Federal Labor Government.

If as reports suggest the numbers remain firmly locked behind Julia Gillard, then Kevin Rudd will be relegated to the backbench. If this is the result then the majority of caucus members will be stating emphatically that they would rather risk annihilation at the next election than restore Rudd to the Prime Ministership.

This can also be seen as an act of blind faith. They will be doing this in the hope that Gillard can turn things around and, with Rudd soundly beaten, the focus of Oz politics will shift to the contest between Gillard and Tony Abbott. 

But can Gillard turns things around? Will a convincing win on Monday confer greater legitimacy on her Prime Ministership? Will that large chunk of the Australian public finally get over their love affair with Kevin Rudd?

Gillard is apparently well liked by many if not most of her caucus colleagues and her leadership style within the party is inclusive and respectful. This we have been told in no uncertain terms is in sharp contrast to her predecessor.

The trashing of Brand Rudd by senior ministers in recent days has been calculated to convince Australians and remind wavering members of caucus of the downside of a return to Rudd. But trashing Brand Rudd is also trashing Brand Labor and the government in which they were major players.

They cannot inoculate themselves from being damaged in the process.  If things were so bad what did they try to do about it at the time?  Did they collectively or individually approach Rudd with an ultimatum that unless he changed his ways he would be dumped?  The political insiders knew there were problems, but the majority of Australians were oblivious to this.

That is why the swiftly executed “midnight coup” took Australians by surprise and this is at the heart of Gillard’s problem with the Australian electorate. Gillard’s prime-ministership lacks legitimacy and an uncertain Federal Election result did nothing to change this.

The fact that most voters don’t understand the intricacies of our system of democracy and that ultimately it is the parliament that determines who will be prime minister is irrelevant.  Many of these are the people who still cannot accept that it was right and proper for Gillard and her “faceless men” to so brutally despatch their elected Prime Minister.

Gillard hasn’t helped her cause. Her inability to connect with the Australian people at large is surprising when we know that one on one she comes across as warm and personable. On her good days she is a highly effective performer in parliament.  She is also a good administrator who pays close attention to detail. She listens to her colleagues. But none of this resonates beyond Capital Hill.

She demonstrated during the last election that she was not a strong and effective campaigner. Some loopy policy decisions were seemingly made on the run and events beyond her control left her wrong-footed. 

Since the election she has failed to sell the Government’s greatest achievement – its management of the economy. In this she has not been helped by Wayne Swan.

That polls show a majority of people would have greater confidence in Abbott as an economic manager is remarkable given the strength of the Oz economy compared with the rest of the world. It does however reflect the inability of Gillard and Swan to convince the Australian people of their successful stewardship of the economy.  A Keating or a Costello would never have let this happen.

You often hear Ministers in praising Gillard describe her as “tough”. This makes me uneasy. While this may be an admirable quality in most leaders, for Gillard this simply reinforces the perception of many that she was so “tough” that she had no qualms about “stabbing in the back” an elected first term Prime Minister. Her other admirable qualities need to come to the fore.

Gillard deserves credit for being able to cobble together the support of the independents to form a minority government and to implement a successful legislative program. Hers is obviously a reformist government in the Labor tradition. Her negotiation skills have been her greatest strength.

But it’s one thing to be a good negotiator behind closed doors, a Prime Minister has to also be able to negotiate with the Australian people.

Can Gillard turn things around after Monday or is Labor mortally wounded. I hope I am wrong but I fear the latter.   

For all his faults and overweening self-belief, a return to Rudd does offer a glimmer of hope. What with all the freely made brutal character assessments of him over recent days he would surely accept a need to change his leadership style.  Even Gillard acknowledges his strength as a campaigner.

But it would seem for many in caucus that would be a bridge too far. Their hostility towards Rudd far exceeds their concern about saving their own seats, let alone the Labor Government. At Monday’s caucus meeting will it be a case of the turkeys voting for Christmas?  

I am sure caucus members are being told over the weekend that as Gillard will survive the challenge she needs to win convincingly. This will probably rope in some who may otherwise have voted for Rudd.

The only thing likely to keep the Rudd forces at bay after Monday will be a turn around for Gillard and Labor in the polls.

Whatever happens on Monday, and it now seems inevitable that Gillard will prevail, there is a gaping wound in the Party that needs to be healed. This can only happen if the protagonists can put aside their egos and animosities. There can be no place for revenge and retribution. Managing all of this will be the real test of Julia Gillard’s capacity as a leader.